The Miami Dolphins are massive underdogs as they seek their first win in Buffalo since 2016 while also trying to avoid losing three times in a 12-day span to open the 2025 regular season on Thursday night.
The Bills are already alone atop the AFC East standings at 2-0, but do have significant injury concerns on defense while playing on a short week.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Buffalo is a consensus 12.0-point favorite, ranging from 11.5 points at books including BetRivers and BetMGM to 12.5 points at DraftKings, among others. BetRivers reported 84 percent of the spread-line money has backed the Bills, while their -1000 moneyline has also drawn 97 percent of the money.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in six of their past eight games, while the Bills have covered the spread in four consecutive home games.
With Buffalo minus a pair of key defensive starters, the public is expecting a high-scoring affair. The 50.0 total points line has seen heavy action on the Over, which has drawn 81 percent of the money. Interestingly, each of the Bills’ past seven Thursday night games have gone Under the total points line.
KEY STAT
Bills quarterback Josh Allen has a seven-game streak without having thrown an interception. He is also 12-2 against Miami in the regular season, his best winning percentage against any opponent he’s faced at least five times.
PROP PICKS
–Allen 25+ Rushing Yards (-166 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the book with Allen entering the game averaging 10 carries for 44.5 yards through the first two games of the season. The main concern here is that while Allen hit at least 25 rushing yards nine times last season, he totaled just 9 yards on four carries in two meetings against Miami.
–Dolphins RB De’Von Achane Anytime TD (+102 at BetRivers): Achane has scored at least once in seven of the Dolphins’ past eight games against AFC East rivals. He’s off to a bit of a slow start with the rest of Miami’s offense, but has totaled 197 yards from scrimmage with one touchdown in each of the first two games.
THE NEWS
The winless Dolphins are 1-6 against the Bills under coach Mike McDaniel, whose seat is getting hotter after an ugly start to 2025. The franchise hasn’t won a game in Buffalo since 2016, which predates McDaniel, Allen and most everyone else involved in this week’s game.
“Thursday night games, after a loss, they can be a blessing because you have no time to think about anything else,” McDaniel said. “… I think it’s extremely important that the guys are solely focused as I am on the Bills and nothing else, because that’s all that does matter.”
It was a similar response to one the coach gave Sunday after the Dolphins (0-2) fell to the New England Patriots 33-27 while a plane flew a banner over the stadium calling for his firing.
“If I worry about my job security,” McDaniel said then, “I won’t be doing my job.”
Dealing with Buffalo is no small task. The Bills have gained a league-high 450 yards per game and rank second in scoring offense at 35.5 points per game. They followed up a classic 41-40 comeback win over Baltimore by stomping the New York Jets 30-10. Miami’s defense ranks near the bottom of the league in average yards (375.5) and points (33.0) allowed.
While Allen, the reigning NFL MVP, remains the focal point of any scouting report, the Bills have become dangerous on the ground thanks to James Cook. The running back is fourth in the NFL with 176 rushing yards and tied for the league lead with three touchdowns.
Cook has scored a rushing touchdown in six straight regular-season games dating to last year, one shy of O.J. Simpson’s team record.
“He’s an absolute stud,” Allen said of Cook, before referencing the running back’s contract hold-in over the summer. “I’m just very proud of how he handled everything this offseason and didn’t let it become a distraction, because he’s looking as good as he ever has.”
Allen got his nose bloodied by a vicious hit during the Jets game and was knocked out for all of two plays. He plans to wear a visor this week to protect it.
After a 33-8 blowout loss to the Indianapolis Colts in the opener, the Dolphins executed better in Week 2. Tua Tagovailoa went 26-for-32 passing for 315 yards and two touchdowns, leading Miami out of a 12-0 hole to take a 27-23 lead. But he threw a costly fourth-quarter interception between Patriots scoring drives to let the game get away.
Buffalo is plenty familiar with Achane along with Miami receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, each of whom had big days in the passing game last week.
“They do a lot of different things. I think Coach McDaniel is one of the better coaches in the league offensively and how he schemes things up,” McDermott said. “It’s hard to defend, explosive. It makes for a big challenge, and especially on a short week.”
INJURY REPORT
Bills defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) and linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) did not practice Monday or Tuesday and have been ruled out. Linebacker Shaq Thompson (hamstring, hand) and defensive backs Cam Lewis (shoulder) and Taron Johnson (quad) have been limited.
For the Dolphins, eight players were limited on Tuesday, including Waddle (shoulder), tight end Darren Waller (hip) and running back Jaylen Wright (knee). Starting center Aaron Brewer is dealing with a hip injury as well, but McDaniel said he is confident Brewer will play. Waddle is expected to test his shoulder pregame, with the team hoping that he’ll be able to play.
Cornerback Storm Duck (ankle) and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (calf) have not practiced this week.
THEY SAID IT
Tagovailoa said he’s never been on a team that started 0-2. A loss Thursday would make the Dolphins 0-3 in a 12-day span, a daunting hole. But Tagovailoa compared the situation to 2021, when the Dolphins lost seven straight and responded with a seven-game winning streak.
“You just got to continue to stick to your process, stay even keel, trust the guys, continue to bring those guys along, and you go out there and continue to play,” Tagovailoa said. “Do your job, do the best that you can and the result will take care of itself.”
PREDICTION
There is cause for concern with the Bills minus at least two key defensive starters. Miami has the offensive weapons to keep pace for a while, but ultimately Buffalo’s explosive offense will impose its will and playing at home on a short week is always a significant advantage. –Bills 34, Dolphins 27
